Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
