Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
